Q&A With Erin

What inspired you to run for public office?

What are 3 things you want voters to know about you?

Given the divided nature of politics, how do you plan to bring people together to accomplish your goals?

What about your background makes you the best candidate for the job?

What are the biggest challenges people are facing right now?

What are your top three priorities if elected?

What is the biggest misconception about you?

What is a challenge you’ve faced that has helped to prepare you for public office?

Violent Crime Statistics from the Redding Police Department

On May 9th, the Redding Police department posted the following data on their Facebook Page.

Part 1 – Violent Crime Statistics
Violent crime is on everyone’s mind lately. How bad is crime in Redding? Is this the worst it’s ever been? (spoilers – it’s not). Let’s take a look at the data!
In 2021, we had 536 violent crime incidents. Looking at data from 1974 to present, we exceeded the number of 2021 violent crime incidents 14 times in previous years:
Most recent full-year results:
2021 – 536 violent crime incidents (population 93,879)
Fourteen years that violent crime incidents were higher than 2021:
1988 – 600 violent crime incidents (population 56,800)
2005 – 550 violent crime incidents (population 88,267)
2008 – 635 violent crime incidents (population 90,192)
2009 – 689 violent crime incidents (population 90,898)
2010 – 793 violent crime incidents (population 89,861) *highest ever recorded
2011 – 701 violent crime incidents (population 90,262)
2012 – 705 violent crime incidents (population 90,376)
2013 – 586 violent crime incidents (population 90,678)
2014 – 610 violent crime incidents (population 90,901)
2015 – 614 violent crime incidents (population 91,052)
2016 – 720 violent crime incidents (population 90,630)
2017 – 655 violent crime incidents (population 90,765)
2018 – 620 violent crime incidents (population 90,995)
2019 – 600 violent crime incidents (population 91,621)
Of note, 1994-96 were within 28 violent crime incidents (or less) from the 2021 results:
1994 – 512 violent crime incidents (population 75,932)
1995 – 508 violent crime incidents (population 76,837)
1996 – 520 violent crime incidents (population 77,706)
Technically, the “worst it has ever been” (based on total incidents) was 12 years ago (2010). Violent crime incidents dropped after 2010 until another spike occurred in 2016. Based on historical data, we are in a period of decline from the 2016 peak of 720 incidents (see graph for more information).
Random Acts of Violence
In most incidents of violent crimes, there is some type of link between the victim and suspect. The national average of a victim-offender link is about 75%, according to 2020 data from the FBI.
What is Included in Violent Crime Stats?
“Violent crimes” consist of four categories per FBI statistical reporting – homicide, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault. Not all crime statistics are as cut and dry as, for example, baseball statistics. When Miguel Cabrera reached 3,000 hits a couple weeks ago, there was no question as to what qualified as a “hit.”
However, as described below, there is a bit of nuance in every violent crime category. Understanding some of that nuance can help to better understand what is happening in Redding.
*Homicide – down 40% from 2020
2020 – 5 homicides
2021 – 3 homicides
The willful (non-negligent) killing of one human being by another.
Not included in homicide crime statistics – Killing in self-defense, suicide, traffic fatalities, attempted homicide, or accidental homicide.
*Rape – up 4% from 2020
2020 – 67 rape incidents
2021 – 70 rape incidents
Includes attempted rape, completed rape, and historical rape (the full definition can be found in the FBI Crime Reporting User Manual). Many rape incidents we report during a calendar year are considered historical, which means they happened before the calendar year in which they are reported.
If a victim tells an officer or mandatory reporter (doctor, counselor) today that they were raped in 2013, we would report that incident in the year it was reported to us – not the year it occurred. It is always important to make sure we report these incidents, but it can lead to the false assumption that all rapes reported in a single year happened that year. Roughly 10% of rapes reported each year in our crime statistics are historical rape incidents.
*Robbery – down 26% from 2020
2020 – 94 robberies
2021 – 70 robberies
The taking or attempting to take anything of value from the care, custody, or control of a person or persons by force or threat of force or violence and/or by putting the victim in fear.
This definition includes shoplifting when the shoplifter uses force or fear. Shoplifting incidents account for up to 40% of all robberies each month in Redding.
*Aggravated Assault – up 13% from 2020
2020 – 347
2021 – 393
An unlawful attack by one person upon another for the purpose of inflicting severe or aggravated bodily injury. This type of assault usually is accompanied by the use of a weapon or by means likely to produce death or great bodily harm.
Per FBI reporting rules, violent crime (like aggravated assaults) counts the number of victims, and property crime counts the number of incidents. When Bill starts wildly swinging a carpet shampooer near seven other people with the intent of hurting or killing them, we count seven aggravated assaults into that year’s crime statistics (also, don’t be a Bill).
Most incidents have one victim. Incidents with more than 2-3 victims are rare, so stats are not often affected by incidents like the example above.
What weapon types can potentially cause death or great bodily harm? Guns, knives, clubs, etc. are easy to report. But what about uncommon weapons, like a set of keys, a glass bottle, or a carpet shampooer?
Keys, bottles, stiletto heel shoes, bare hands (martial arts or trained fighter), books, nails (both finger and hardware), and yes, even a carpet shampooer, are all examples from past aggravated assault reports occurring in Redding.
We err on the side of capturing as much applicable data as possible. How that data will be used by individuals or organizations is never a factor in how we analyze incidents and report statistics.
Part 2 – Property Crime (coming soon)
Mike Murphy
Crime Analyst (and Detroit Tigers fan)